IMPROVEMENT OF THE APPROACHES TO ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

Abstract

Macroeconomic indicators are also used to analyze the level of the national economy, the dynamic evolution of the national economy. In such situations, we can identify the factors of economic growth and their consequences. Several factors affect the evolution of GDP: employment, labor productivity, the level of technology, investments and foreign direct investment, imports, exports or net exports, total consumption, etc. In this thesis, forecasts of macroeconomic indicators using the ARIMA and trend models using the scenario method were made using the analysis time series.